Gold found support just below $1,530 per ounce on Tuesday with dips in early Asia limited to $1,532 before a rally to the $1,545 area ahead of Wednesday's New York open. Silver still finds strong support on dips with 18-month highs close to $18.50 per ounce on Wednesday.
There are strong expectations that the ECB will launch an aggressive monetary stimulus package at the 12th policy meeting in September with Vice President de Guindos calling on the bank to act with determination.
German bond yields remain on negative territory across the curve with the 10-year yield at -0.60%.
There is also a strong likelihood that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again at the September policy meeting with futures markets expecting at least a further 0.25% rate cut.
Confidence in the Federal Reserve has been damaged by persistent attacks on the central bank and Chair Powell by President Trump.
The US Administration approach to policy making will also be a key corrosive factor to dent sentiment on the US dollar.
Barring a breakthrough in US-China trade talks, underlying risk appetite is likely to remain fragile with strong underlying demand for precious metals.
European political factors will make a crucial impact with a fresh row erupting over Brexit as the UK government proposed suspending parliament for a month ahead of October 14th.
A lack of confidence in the US and European political prospects will also reinforce demand for precious metals while the euro's vulnerability will tend to weaken the shared currency rather than reverse gains.
Immediate technical resistance for silver is seen at near $18.70 with a medium-term target of $20.00 per ounce. Short-term silver support is likely to be on dips to $18.20 per ounce.
Initial gold resistance is expected at near $1,560 with a longer-term target of $1,600 per ounce and short-term support near $1,535.
週一,美國在週末於瑞士舉行的為期兩天的會議後宣布與中國的貿易談判取得「重要進展」。市場對此消息的反應是,股票指數期貨交易跳空高開,黃金價格下跌。
由於美元的廣泛走強,英鎊/美元匯率又一次面臨壓力。上週,英鎊試圖因應英國央行五月會議結果以及華府與倫敦達成貿易協議的公告而突破1.34區域。
金融市場的變化真是迅速!在美國解放日之前,投資者認為 10% 的通用進口關稅是一場災難。然而,如今它被視為最有利的選擇。
週一沒有安排任何宏觀經濟事件。基本面發展也會有限,但目前尚不清楚是哪些因素在影響價格形成。
下週對所有美元貨幣對來說都將充滿波動性。市場將對美國與中國代表在日內瓦會議的結果作出反應。
EUR/USD 貨幣對在週五略微上升,整體來說,過去幾週一直在緩慢下跌。這種走勢如此遲緩,以至於我們最近將其歸類為盤整市場。
美國未來一週的經濟日曆不會充斥著太多數據。如果我們排除次要報告,僅剩4月份的消費者價格指數(CPI),將於周三公佈。
英鎊的波動模式和市場對新聞的關注目前反映了歐元的情況。上週,市場有機會降低對GBP/USD工具的需求,即使考慮到特朗普的貿易戰,這也不會令人驚訝。
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