趨勢分析(圖1):
週一,市場自1.2921(週五的日線收盤價)開始,可能向下移動至1.2887,這對應於14.6%的回檔水平(黃色虛線)。從該水平,價格可能接著向上移動至1.2944,這與上方分形(黃色虛線)一致。
綜合分析:
總體結論:整體趨勢仍然看跌。
替代情景:
如果價格從1.2921(週五的日收盤價)下行,可能會到達1.2852(23.6%回撤水平,黃色虛線)。從這個水平起,價格可能會開始上漲至1.2935,該位置為歷史支撐水平(淺藍色虛線)。
週三,EUR/USD貨幣對繼續下跌,並穩定在1.1260–1.1282支撐區以下。因此,今日的價格下跌可能會向下一個斐波那契回撤位23.6%即1.1186推進。
在小時圖上,週三英鎊/美元對跌至1.3425水平。若從該水平反彈,將對英鎊有利,並可能帶動其上升至1.3520的161.8%斐波那契回撤位。
由於美國法律訴訟的啟動以及美元在外匯市場的走強,黃金價格持續承壓。許多市場參與者似乎押注特朗普對「深層政府」的戰鬥最終可能失敗,這將顯著緩解全球緊張局勢並推動風險資產需求。
在部分连续三日下跌后,英鎊已達到1.3433的目標支撐位。在日線圖上,Marlin振盪器尚未觸及其上升通道的下邊界,並繼續拉低價格。
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