empty
27.03.2025 07:07 PM
Analysis for GBP/USD on March 27, 2025

This image is no longer relevant

The wave pattern for GBP/USD remains somewhat ambiguous, but overall, it is manageable. There is still a high probability of a long-term downward trend developing. Wave 5 has taken a convincing form, so I consider senior wave 1 completed. If this assumption is correct, wave 2 is currently unfolding with targets around the 1.26 and 1.28 figures. The first two subwaves within wave 2 appear to be complete. The third could end at any moment.

Demand for the pound has recently been supported only by the "Trump factor," which remains the main ally of the British currency. However, over a longer horizon than just a few days, the pound still lacks a fundamental basis for growth. The Bank of England and the Fed have both recently shifted positions in favor of the pound, as the BoE has also indicated it is in no rush to cut interest rates. The current wave pattern remains intact, but any further rally in the instrument would raise serious concerns about its validity.

The GBP/USD rate rose by 70 basis points on Thursday and may continue its rise into the end of the day. Let's recall that Trump announced new tariffs overnight. That's when demand for the U.S. dollar began to fall again. However, American traders on U.S. exchanges and broker platforms did not have sufficient time to fully react to this news. Therefore, a decline in the dollar during the U.S. session is to be expected. Not guaranteed, of course—but expected.

The recent shallow decline of the pound is almost laughable. There are indeed factors limiting its fall, but there are also plenty of reasons to expect a stronger dollar. Yet, market participants seem focused only on Trump, his tariffs, the potential recession in the U.S. economy, and the Fed's near-zero interest rates. That's why demand for the U.S. dollar continues to weaken. The wave pattern is now on the verge of being invalidated, and the dollar can only hope that the April 2 tariffs will be the last. If so, persistent dollar selling may stop, and the pair will retain the chance to form wave 3 of the downward trend. Of course, this will now take much longer, as the dollar must regain market trust and its "safe haven" status—something that's hard to do under this president. Still, forming wave 3 remains possible.

This image is no longer relevant

General Conclusions

The wave pattern for GBP/USD suggests that the downward trend is still developing, as is wave 2 of this movement. At this point, I would advise looking for new short entries, as the current wave pattern still favors a continuation of the downtrend that began last autumn. However, how Trump and his policies will continue to influence market sentiment remains a mystery. The current rise in the pound seems excessive relative to the wave pattern. The BoE and FOMC meetings could have served as the launch point for wave 3, but it appears they did not. And April 2 is still ahead...

On the larger wave scale, the wave pattern has shifted. Now, we can assume the start of a downward trend, as the previous three-wave upward structure appears to be complete. If this assumption is correct, we should expect corrective wave 2 or b, followed by impulsive wave 3 or c.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

  1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often evolve.
  2. If there is no confidence in the market situation, it is better to stay out.
  3. There is never 100% certainty in market direction. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
  4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.
Chin Zhao,
Analytical expert of InstaTrade
© 2007-2025

Recommended Stories

Analisis GBP/USD pada 8 Mei 2025

Struktur gelombang untuk GBP/USD juga telah berubah menjadi corak menaik dan impulsif—disebabkan oleh Donald Trump. Gambaran gelombang hampir serupa dengan EUR/USD. Sehingga 28 Februari, kita dapat melihat pembentukan struktur pembetulan

Chin Zhao 19:40 2025-05-08 UTC+2

Analisis EUR/USD pada 8 Mei 2025

Corak gelombang pada carta 4 jam bagi EUR/USD telah berubah menjadi struktur menaik. Saya percaya hampir tiada keraguan bahawa perubahan ini hanya dipacu oleh dasar perdagangan baharu Amerika Syarikat. Sebelum

Chin Zhao 19:33 2025-05-08 UTC+2

Analisis GBP/USD pada 7 Mei 2025

Pola gelombang untuk GBP/USD juga telah berubah menjadi struktur impulsif kenaikan harga—terima kasih kepada Donald Trump. Gambaran gelombang ini sangat mirip dengan EUR/USD. Sehingga 28 Februari, kita menyaksikan struktur pembetulan

Chin Zhao 19:55 2025-05-07 UTC+2

Analisis EUR/USD pada 7 Mei 2025

Corak gelombang pada carta 4 jam untuk EUR/USD kini telah berubah menjadi struktur menaik. Saya percaya hampir tiada keraguan bahawa perubahan ini berlaku semata-mata disebabkan dasar perdagangan baharu Amerika Syarikat

Chin Zhao 19:51 2025-05-07 UTC+2

Analisis EUR/USD – 6 Mei: Fed Kekal dengan Pendekatan Agresif

Corak gelombang pada carta 4 jam pasangan EUR/USD telah berubah kepada struktur menaik. Saya percaya tiada banyak keraguan bahawa transformasi ini berlaku semata-mata akibat dasar perdagangan baharu yang diterima pakai

Chin Zhao 19:03 2025-05-06 UTC+2

Analisis GBP/USD – 5 Mei: Apakah yang Sedang Dipersiapkan oleh Bank of England untuk Kita?

Struktur gelombang bagi pasangan GBP/USD juga telah berubah menjadi corak menaik yang bersifat impulsif — "terima kasih" kepada Donald Trump. Gambaran gelombang ini hampir sama dengan pasangan EUR/USD. Sehingga

Chin Zhao 18:09 2025-05-05 UTC+2

Analisis EUR/USD – 5 Mei. Tarif Baru Trump Gagal Menarik Perhatian

Struktur gelombang pada carta 4 jam untuk pasangan EUR/USD telah berubah menjadi kenaikan. Saya percaya tidak ada keraguan bahawa perubahan ini sepenuhnya disebabkan oleh dasar perdagangan baru A.S. Sehingga

Chin Zhao 18:06 2025-05-05 UTC+2

Ramalan Mingguan Berdasarkan Analisis Gelombang Ringkas untuk GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP dan Indeks Dolar AS – 5 Mei

GBP/USD Analisis: Carta 4-jam bagi pound British menunjukkan bahawa pembetulan sementara berbentuk mendatar sedang terbentuk dalam gelombang naik dominan yang diperhatikan dalam beberapa minggu kebelakangan ini. Segmen kenaikan yang belum

Isabel Clark 10:43 2025-05-05 UTC+2

Ramalan Mingguan Berdasarkan Analisis Gelombang Ringkas untuk EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, USD/CAD, NZD/USD, dan Emas – 5 Mei

EUR/USD Analisis: Graf carta jam bagi pasangan utama euro menunjukkan gelombang menaik yang dominan sejak awal Februari. Pembetulan yang dibentuk dalam tiga minggu yang lalu hampir selesai. Bahagian yang belum

Isabel Clark 10:32 2025-05-05 UTC+2

Analisis GBP/USD pada 1 Mei 2025

Pola gelombang untuk GBP/USD juga telah berubah menjadi struktur menaik yang impulsif — "terima kasih" kepada Donald Trump. Pola gelombang ini hampir sama dengan EUR/USD. Sehingga 28 Februari, kita menyaksikan

Chin Zhao 18:56 2025-05-01 UTC+2
Tidak boleh bertanya sekarang?
Tanya soalan anda di Ruangan bersembang.
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaTrade anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.