Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the British Pound

The price test at 1.2561 occurred as the MACD indicator began moving downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point to sell the pound. As a result, the pair dropped by more than 60 points.

Weak PMI data from the UK services sector signaled trouble, prompting investors to actively sell the British pound. The 50 mark, which separates expansion from contraction, was a critical threshold. Its drop raised serious concerns about the UK economy. Since the services sector represents a significant portion of the UK GDP, this could foreshadow a slowdown in GDP growth in the coming months.

Given these circumstances, market participants have started reassessing their expectations for the Bank of England's monetary policy. A slowdown in services activity could also weaken the labor market. If businesses fail to see demand growth, this may lead to job cuts and reduced consumer spending. The Bank of England must now weigh the risks of slowing economic growth against the pressures of high inflation.

Later today, key US data—including the manufacturing and services PMI—will be released. The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index and inflation expectations will also be published. Strong data may further support dollar purchases and add pressure on the pound. For intraday trading, I will focus on scenarios 1 and 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario 1: Today, I plan to buy the pound if the price reaches around 1.2527 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.2563. At 1.2563, I will exit the market and initiate a short position, aiming for a 30–35 point movement. Strong pound growth today can only be expected if US data is exceptionally weak.Note: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and beginning to rise.

Scenario 2: I also plan to buy the pound today if the price tests 1.2497 twice, with the MACD indicator in the oversold zone. This setup would limit the pair's downward potential and could prompt a market reversal upward. In this case, I anticipate growth toward 1.2527 and 1.2563.

Sell Signal

Scenario 1: I plan to sell the pound if the price reaches 1.2497 (red line on the chart), resulting in a sharp decline. The key target for sellers is 1.2464, where I will exit the market and initiate a buy position, aiming for a rebound of 20–25 points. Strong US statistics could bolster sellers' confidence.Note: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and beginning to fall.

Scenario 2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the price tests 1.2527 twice, with the MACD indicator in the overbought zone. This setup would limit the pair's upward potential and likely lead to a downward reversal. In this case, I anticipate a decline toward 1.2497 and 1.2464.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line: Suggested entry price for a long position.
• Thick green line: Target price for setting Take Profit or locking in profits manually, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line: Suggested entry price for a short position.
• Thick red line: Target price for setting Take Profit or locking in profits manually, as further decline beyond this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: Focus on its position relative to the zero line and monitor for overbought or oversold signals.

Important Notes for Beginners

Beginner traders in the Forex market should exercise caution when entering trades. It is advisable to avoid trading before significant economic reports to prevent losses from sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to manage risk. Without stop-loss orders, your entire deposit could be lost quickly, especially when trading large volumes without proper money management.

For successful trading, a clear plan—like the one outlined above—is crucial. Spontaneous decisions based on immediate market conditions often lead to losses for intraday traders.